At the end of April most investors were saying, “We’ll take a rise of 12% year to date for the whole year. Let’s pack up and go home now!” The “sell in May and go away” mantra proved not to be worth paying much attention to either, despite a wobble during the last 10 days of the month, and now June has turned in the best performance for US equities since 1938. As a whole, US equities for the year are up 17.8%, including dividend reinvestment, and the performance of the FTSE All World Index is up 15.8%. Usually, when equities are up, bonds are down, but not this year. The long bond index of US Treasuries is up 11% since January 1st, reflecting a negative outlook for interest rates, indeed markets are now forecasting the Federal Reserve, after misstepping and raising rates in November, will now cut rates thrice between now and end year in order to try to relieve slowing growth and stimulate corporate investment.
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