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The fact that everyone now, wherever they live in the world, is affected in some way by the effects of the pandemic, and possibly will be for another four to six months, is enough to make any investor think twice about investing new money in the stockmarket. It seems trite to be talking about the…

It has been the worst week for stock markets since the financial crash in 2008, evidenced by the US Dow Jones going from a record high to correction (usually defined as down 10% but in this case the Dow fell 15.5%) in a record 10 sessions, and the VIX volatility index rising over 100% in…

No one likes to hear about the spread of a previously unheard of virus but the corona virus emanating from China has thankfully put a break on the equity markets which were beginning to trade on over exuberance. The World Health Council declared the virus a world health emergency on January 31st, and what at…

This time last year this bulletin forecast no interest rate rises from any of the world’s central banks, against the opinion of most of the analysts that there would be at least three, possibly four rate rises from the US’s Federal Reserve. We were proved right. The year ahead should see again not a single…

The UK’s General Election on December 12th is no laughing matter. Martin Wolff, one of the most respected journalists for the Financial Times, and as a young man a supporter of the Labour Party, wrote a telling article this last weekend in support of the earlier open letter in the FT from 163 economists which…

Three days after the 90th anniversary of the 1929 Stockmarket crash, and with a current bull market of the longest ever duration, many are now questioning whether we are on the verge of another crash. In 1929 there was an exuberant air following the ‘roaring twenties’. People were taking on too much debt, including the purchase…

As unlikely as many see it, if Boris Johnson loses his job to send the Conservative party further into the mire, Jeremy Corbyn could be the next UK prime minister. In June, the labour party leader said, “The very richest in our society have had tax breaks, giveaways and tax havens; they’re living on borrowed time.” What…

Volatility returned big-time to the markets during August, making the holiday month the most hair-raising in four years. After July’s positive returns for both equities and bonds, August was a different story. Daily 200-300 point moves up and down on the S&P500 index were commonplace, bond yields fell in the US and across Europe as bond…

President Trump decided this week to taunt China. “We hold the cards”, he said. Trump thinks the tariffs he has put in place on Chinese goods coming into the US has brought billions of dollars into the US economy, and that China is “dying to do a deal with me” because of the hurt being inflicted…

At the end of April most investors were saying, “We’ll take a rise of 12% year to date for the whole year. Let’s pack up and go home now!” The “sell in May and go away” mantra proved not to be worth paying much attention to either, despite a wobble during the last 10 days of…

For as finely balanced as the world economic situation is at present, the political environment could hardly be more disruptive. President Donald Trump decided that with US stocks in early May near all time highs (US equity markets were up 13% this year alone to May 29th), US unemployment declining, wages increasing and consumer confidence rising,…

Stockpicking need not be as difficult as many would make out! That’s a controversial statement but many high profile successful investors have a relatively simple formula for investing, namely, pick the companies you understand. Most people don’t have the time or inclination to monitor the minutiae of a company’s cashflow, its return on equity (ROE), its…

The US S&P500 gained 12.3% during the first quarter – the best first quarter for US equities since 1998, the year “Titanic” gave us records at the Box Office, but this paled into insignificance compared to the performance of the FTSE AllShare, up 16%, and China, up 29%, the best quarterly performance for China since…

What is your discipline, your strategy for investing? Let your winners win or take profit and move on? Hope your losers recover or stop-loss? Diversification or concentration?

The Dow Jones rose more than 7% in January and the Nasdaq more than 9%. December was undoubtedly an unpleasant month for stock investors, exacerbated by almost 500 US hedge funds closing their books for good. Such huge liquidation t created a ripple effect which unnerved investors otherwise preoccupied with fears of the consequences of…

Consensus forecasts for the S&P500 to finish 2018 at 2900 were blown away during the last quarter, led by profit-taking in tech in October, fuelled by fears of trade war consequences in November and capped off by autopilot rate raising talk by the Federal Reserve in December. At the start of of 2018, world equity…

The rout suffered by nearly all stocks during October / November was ended when Fed chief Jerome Powell stated on November 28th that he thought US interest rates were “close to being normalised”.

Halloween reprieve from October rout As in the wake of the financial crisis, only precious metals rally Technical heavyweights lose 20-35% from recent highs “In case of panic, DO NOTHING!” The Federal Reserve’s continual talk of constant tightening to more ‘normal’ rate levels, together with China-US trade tariffs, more Italian financial and political scares, a…

• US Fed removes “accommodative” from September statement • 2 year Treasuries get strong bid at 2.86% Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell told the markets last week in his September statement that effectively interest rates are now, at 2.25%, in a sweet spot of where they should be, given the current state of the US…

Slow, slow, quick – Strong US equity rally in the last week of August Dollar weakens to stem Emerging Market losses US equities ‘fair value’ following positive earnings season “If ever I got impeached, I think the market would crash”. So said Donald Trump during the third week of the holiday month, in the face…

Investors withdraw from equities to favour cash … but the case for US stocks “is as strong as it has ever been” MAGA: Make America Great Again – or alternative tech acronym? Where to invest next – Emerging Markets? For the first time since 2008, cash is returning something – not much in sterling terms…

China market into bear territory Indian disillusionment with Narendra Modi Oil and a Stronger Dollar impact equity markets Markets have gone into reverse of late. A trade war, higher oil prices, Brexit, Italy, and slower growth reports in China have sent shivers through equities. Earnings in the US for the last quarter may have been…

Robert Shiller (he of the CAPE Shiller ratio to better determine company price earnings ratios by ‘A’djusting the traditional measure of ‘P’rice ‘E’arnings by a ‘C’yclical factor which takes into account inflation’s impact on the [moving] average of ten years of earnings) is a renowned Nobel prize-winning economist, and he has been calling the equity…

A priority for many parents is to save for their children’s future. When considering financial planning options for parents, there is increasing recognition of the value of offshore single premium investment bonds in inter-generational financial planning.  

There was a sell-off in early February and then markets recovered. The last ten days of trading in March saw heavy selling. All of a sudden there is plenty to worry about: the threat of a new cold war; a trade war with China; Brexit; inflation; and now consumer privacy violation, leading to the likelihood…

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