If you would like to receive our Global Market Outlook bulletins, please subscribe here
The turn of the year is a turn of the page for most. A turn of the year into 2023 for the markets is likely to give more of the same as 2022, at least for a while. The landscape has dramatically changed from the easy-money one of 2021 when the Federal Reserve was ‘lower for…
November 17th won’t go down in anyone’s diary as a date to remember unless they’re lucky enough to have a birthday to take their mind off the hammer blows that UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt dealt to ‘alarm-clock Britain’. Much of the UK’s lenient tax regime went out the window as tax and investment planning tools (capital…
There was a sharp rebound in stocks last month, as US corporate earnings announcements in respect of the third quarter have showed signs of resilience to hardening economic conditions. Bond prices fell (and yields rose) as market participants decided defensive bond purchases were becoming overdone. Money rotated into equites, driving the S&P500 up 5% in the…
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss had barely moved into Downing Street before her new Chancellor’s ‘fiscal event’ dropped a jaw- dropping bombshell in the UK’s political spectrum, and received derision from international markets. The UK’s Conservative party has been in power for 12 years and has had four Prime Ministers: Cameron, May, Johnson and now Truss….
More pain to come for equity investors – at least in the short term. While the UK’s FTSE100 headline index bumbled along in August, volatility returned to the S&P500 in the US. The benchmark index between mid-June and mid-August managed to recover 50% of the stockmarket fall which began on January 5th and sent stocks tumbling…
After a first half-year which was the worst for equity markets in the US since 1970, markets rallied off June lows as second quarter corporate earnings beat expectations (Netflix and SNAP were notable exceptions) and finished the month strongly following far better than feared announcements from Amazon and Apple. Positive trade was helped by the lead…
With the US Nasdaq technology index having fallen 28% from its high on January 4th, it and other equity indices rebounded from their downward spiral during the penultimate week of May on the expectation, rather than the hope, that inflation is peaking, and that the Federal Reserve is on top it. The belief is that the…
March closed on a note of optimism for equity market investors but April’s stockmarket performance was full of pain, especially for those exposed to the technology, transportation and emerging market (notably China) sectors. Since 1996, April has statistically been the best month for developed market investment returns, followed by July. There is no real rhyme or…
From being heavily oversold in late February, equity markets rebounded strongly in the last two weeks of March as a combination among investors of a fear of missing out (FOMO), buy the dip, and some careful optimism that Putin might seek a way out of continuing the war in Ukraine, all brought to bear in…
For the second time in two years, discussion of global investment markets and investment strategy seems totally inappropriate when there is a threat to civilisation. Nevertheless, markets are reacting to the world’s condemnation of Russia’s actions
Equities around the world continued the bull run in 2021 which started amid the pandemic in March 2020. It turned out to be the first year in 16 that the S&P500 outperformed the Dow and the Nasdaq. The 500 rose 27%, the Nasdaq rose 22% and the Dow 18%. France’s CAC40 was the surprise star performer…
The pandemic has resulted in many people losing their jobs, and those worst affected by a ratio of 57.5% to 42.5%, are women, according to a survey last week in the US. The task of having to look after an elderly relative and / or young children usually falls on women. This undoubtedly has much to…
Largely unnoticed the dollar has gained strength steadily. It is now at it highest level of the year, up 5% since the lows of May, supported by a sell-off in both bonds and equities as quantitative easing (QE) begins its unwinding in the US.As investors have returned from Summer holidays, September, which is historically a…
Chinese technology stocks, pummelled during July and the early part of August, rebounded during the second half of the month as buyers came in to snap up shares which had been subject to overreactive selling in the wake of a crackdown by the authorities seeking to ensure there is no monopolistic behaviour among the major…
Does China really want to go to war with the West? Right now, it feels like it, not in the military sense but from an economic point of view. China does not want the West muscling in on its ambitions to take over democratic Taiwan, nor does it want to be told how to treat…
Over the last 12 months there has been a greater understanding of the word ‘vulnerability’ and how it relates to individuals and businesses. An individual can be vulnerable to making incorrect decisions in their day to day affairs because of an aspect of their health, because they have suffered bereavement, because they have lost their…
Equity markets went off the boil for the first three weeks in May, continuing a lacklustre second half of April, but they finished the month with something of a mini-crescendo. European stocks completed their fourth consecutive month of gains, indeed the German, French, Spanish, Italian and British indices all finished higher for the month. Chinese…
Does the US stockmarket have a feeling of exhaustion? Maybe it is rather pausing for breath after what has been a remarkable run since March last year.US stocks reported record earnings from the first quarter, and although the SP500 and the Nasdaq reached new highs, volatility is negligible (less than 20 on the VIX). The…
Several events rocked the markets during March: a sudden spike in US 10 year Treasury yields due to the bond market refusing to believe the Federal Reserve can hold interest rates at current levels until 2023; a consequent rapid shift in sentiment from growth (technology with hoped-for earnings) to value (dividend payers with actual earnings…
10 year Treasury yields rose sharply in the US at the end of February, and it caused the technology sector, which is largely priced on the promise of future growth, to experience quite a downdraft. The market is not so tolerant now of companies which are highly leveraged on promise, and if inflation is round the…
Those investing in US stocks over the last 10 months have had an uneasy feeling seeing their investments going up day after day without a pullback. The higher the market climbs without pausing, the harsher the sell-off is likely to be. Such has been the flow of capital from central banks in general but from the…
Look forward to 2021! This should be a good year, with the roll-out of the vaccine, pent-up demand for theme parks, outdoor event attendance and participation, and overseas travel. Peripheral stockmarkets around the world should rise in the same way American and Chinese markets rose last year, although a degree of caution suggests that anticipated…
November was the best month on record for equities across the globe as they averaged a return of 13%. Markets are comfortable with a Biden victory in the US election (resulting in a stalemate between Congress and the Senate thus less likelihood of radical tax changes) and there is expectation of less international trade confrontation….
So, will it be ‘divide and conquer’ Trump or ‘another empty seat at the kitchen table’ Biden? Incredibly, Biden is guaranteeing that “nobody earning less than $400,000 will pay a penny more in taxes” if he gets elected. That only 1.8% of the American population will pay higher taxes seems a very high bar for…
The Lifetime Allowance (the limit of the amount of pension fund which can be accumulated in the UK without incurring an excess charge) is currently £1,073,100. What is not widely understood is that if the allowance is breached in terms of accumulation, no excess charge is incurred until the fund is fully ‘crystallised’ by making plans…
